Planning May 2018
Best-Case Scenario Planning
Incorporating AV and other technology into plans.
By Lisa Nisenson
Imagine this scene: You've been working on a comprehensive plan for two years. Just as you assemble the final briefing book for planning commission review, the planning director rushes into your office asking how the plan accounts for autonomous vehicles.
The short answer is that it does not. What's worse, the plan doesn't even address the technology already hitting the streets today: shared-use mobility, e-bike share, delivery bots, smart city technology, or Mobility-as-a-Service, which aggregates multiple modes in one app. Even before its release, your comprehensive plan is out of date.
Some might dismiss the word "disruption" as jargon, but that's exactly what it feels like is happening: Change and uncertainty on several fronts — from technology to climate change to structural shifts in the economy — are disrupting the planning tradition of mid- and long-range forecasts.
And while we don't have a crystal ball to show us how the future will unfold, we do have another trick up our sleeves: scenario planning. It can be a powerful tool to better frame and incorporate uncertainty into planning processes.
Defining the Future: Terms
A variety of terms describe incorporating the future into planning.
Scenario planning refers to developing a set of plausible futures. Of these, visioning typically refers to a single preferred future, while forecasting describes the most likely future.
Scenarios can be normative (working with a defined goal or vision) or exploratory (working from trends to develop trajectories). Planners can also create anticipatory scenarios that include not only a future state, but the increments or stages over time.
Planners can apply performance metrics at each stage to determine whether to move forward with, adjust, or abandon a scenario's path.
A brief history
Scenario planning has its roots in military war games and strategic planning for business, as companies hustle to stay in front of market changes and competitors.
Planners began to expand scenario planning in the late 1980s, as growth pressures and the advent of forecasting tools led to new regional approaches. Transportation and land-use planners first used scenario planning to "assess the regional trade-offs of moving housing and jobs around," notes Hannah Twadell, technical director of integrated transportation planning for the global consulting firm ICF.
Around 2010, several trends converged to again tap scenario planning for community and regional design. The need to envision and leverage additional uses from existing assets, as well as the need to better link scenarios to action, culminated in new resources. In 2011, the Federal Highway Administration released its Scenario Planning Guidebook for transportation agencies and their stakeholders, later updating the guide in 2017 to include next-generation scenario planning.
Today's fast-paced world means we can no longer rely on forecasts that build off typical jobs and population trend lines, nor can we reliably forecast conditions five years out, much less in the 20-year — and more — horizons that communities must plan for.
Autonomous vehicles are a big part of that uncertainty and they tend to dominate current discussions. But other advances are poised to affect almost every facet of mobility, community design, and governance. Some already are.
E-commerce is reshaping real estate, logistics and delivery, which in turn affects commercial real estate values and roadway use. Shared-use mobility — in particular, transportation network companies like Uber, Lyft, and Via — is providing expanded choices in some areas, though adding to congestion and depressed transit usage in others. At the 2018 Consumer Electronics Show in January, Toyota unveiled its e-Palette autonomous vehicle, basically a reconfigurable shell that can serve a variety of uses: from delivery truck to food truck to roving shoe store all in the same day. Summit, New Jersey, decided to forgo a $10 million parking structure at a crowded commuter rail station, instead partnering with TNCs to provide rides to the station.
Planning professionals, engineers, and architects can no longer plan an individual, static project, but rather must craft site, infrastructure, and district plans that are strategically designed to adapt as technology and the economy evolve. But how?
Uses and benefits of scenario planning
The answer lies in anticipating unknowns to proactively harness the benefits while limiting risks. In addition to traditional visioning and long-term planning exercises, there are additional types of, and uses for, scenario planning in our everyday work. With smart city and transportation technology, planners can explore both the likelihood and degree of potential impacts, positive and negative, in various activities:
ENGAGEMENT. Scenario planning offers a new frame for addressing controversial topics. For public engagement, sessions enlist stakeholders to examine challenges and opportunities, which can lead to constructive conversations on the best approaches. Internally, organizations can use scenario planning to convene multiple departments and agencies, breaking silos to assess potential crosssector impacts.
PREPLANNING. Planners can use scenario planning in the initial scoping for a plan update. This step, as "Task 0" can get in front of fast-paced change and uncertainty. Similarly, a city or county can use scenario planning workshops to develop forward looking requests for proposals for large comprehensive transportation or corridor plan updates.
OUT-OF-CYCLE PLAN UPDATES. In some cases an organization cannot wait for the next plan update, because of a catastrophic event or the need to update a small area plan to accommodate technology infrastructure upgrades, for instance. Since scenario planning combines engagement, research, decision support, and the ability to develop near-term roadmaps, it is a flexible tool for expedited action.
POLICY STRESS-TESTING. According to Robert Goodspeed, AICP, professor of urban planning at the University of Michigan, a good plan or policy performs well under multiple scenarios. For example, a large suburban transit agency can test various fleet mix options under scenarios for three, 10, and 20 years in the future. The agency can test "scenarios within each scenario" or bundles of elements subject to change (e.g., simultaneous advances in both autonomous technology and electric charging).
Tool, Process, or Both?
Scenario planning can be all three depending on the purpose and outputs desired. Exploratory scenarios help describe the wide range of "what-ifs" and "what is likely."
Planners are familiar with how big regional approaches to scenario planning can be used for even smaller activities. The driving factor is incorporating uncertainty, whether it's a regional plan or a small plan update.
ICF's Hannah Twadell notes that in these initial stages, numbers and technology can — perhaps counterintuitively — work against the ability to fully examine the range of possibilities. Numbers can be overwhelming, distracting, and limiting at the same time, while tools may give a false sense of accuracy. Once the community begins to focus on preferred scenarios, planners can turn to a variety of tools to quantify impacts, compare alternatives, and support policy decisions.
Tools like Envision Tomorrow and UrbanFootprint can lend quantitative support for various policy goals, including housing and climate targets. "Once you know what you are trying to do, software and data takes you from the general direction-setting realm into the boots on the ground realm," says Janae Futrell, of Civic Sphere and the Consortium for Scenario Planning.
Does all this complexity equate to a huge price tag? Not always, says urban planning professor Robert Goodspeed. Scenario planning need not be overly expensive nor require technical expertise. Some of the most effective tools in scenario planning are sticky notes and flip charts.
Planning for transitions
Technologies like autonomous vehicles won't appear overnight. Scenario planning can help identify the pace and phases of technology, from concept to pilot to full deployment. The graphic on page 18 shows how a city can build an autonomous shuttle or microtransit strategy. In addition to existing private shuttles, a city can launch a pilot with on demand service. Travel patterns can establish next moves to test autonomous shuttles on a closed course, city streets, and finally to full service. Within each phase, there can be multiple steps with established data collection and performance protocols. Critical policy decisions or tipping points mark pilot termination, course correction, or pilot expansion.
Moving to the Future
In this example of planning for driverless shuttles, each step, from existing microtransit conditions to the future, involves multiple sub-steps and tipping points.
Icons courtesy the Noun Project: from left, by Becris, Verve-S, Jamison Wieser, and Guilhem.
Setting the big picture
Before delving into the steps of this process, it's helpful to review critical success factors.
As Janae Futrell, AICP, of Civic Sphere and the Consortium for Scenario Planning, has noted, communities should begin by defining the "why" of exploring alternative futures. In general, the "why" is answered with a series of questions. Are there notable or looming changes in any or all of the following?
- Assumptions (travel demand, revenue)
- Patterns (demographic projections, economic activity)
- Events (abrupt funding changes, meteorological events)
- Technology (job automation, autonomous vehicle trials)
These are often referred to as drivers or external forces. For initial scenario planning, a community may want to begin by examining one driver and the array of impacts, for example how climate change may increase air temperatures, urban heat island effect, and localized flooding. Communities can also examine multiple aspects of a single change driver. For example, automated vehicles will take many forms: trucks, buses, shuttles, cars, and drones. Each of these will have its own set of potential benefits, risks, operational factors, and policies.
On a more complex level, planners will also need to consider multiple lines of change and how evolving technology and trends interact. For example, planners already examine how site design, land uses, and parking influence each other. However, technology is transforming each of these elements in myriad ways. Scenarios can describe how changes in one area, such as autonomous shuttles, may produce ripple effects in other aspects of parking and curb usage.
Next-generation scenario planning
Once leadership has determined the need for a scenario planning exercise and identified the drivers to examine, the next step is scoping and charting the process.
SCOPING. This step defines the purpose, time horizons, level of effort, work products, and intended outcomes. The most important step is identifying the work, for example a one-page memo on how autonomous vehicles will affect redevelopment planning or a transportation plan update. This will determine how you structure prompts and brainstorming that then feed into the product. Process goals can include end products and organizational changes sought. "Out-of-the-box thinking" and "challenging outdated assumptions" as often top objectives.
WORKSHOP DESIGN TEAM. Enlist stakeholders who are the most knowledgeable on trends, potential impacts, workshop participants, and levers if proactive management is one of the goals. Levers describe management activities and can include regulations, funding, pricing, and other approaches for forming incentives and disincentives.
Sticky notes are a low-tech, but effective, tool for workshop participants as they brainstorm to envision various scenarios and possible outcomes. Photo courtesy Fregonese Associates, Inc.
WORKSHOP AGENDA
While every workshop will differ, in general most agendas include an opening presentation, structured brainstorming, a synthesis report, and next steps in developing a desired end product. Scenario brainstorming often assesses the impacts related to various drivers of change, as well as the degree to which impacts will be positive or negative. In developing scenarios, you will want to plot which aspects are uncertain, probable, and preferred. For example, the feasibility of passenger drones is uncertain, yet tests are under way and both positive and negative impacts could be significant.
SCENARIO PLANNING USE CASES
The table below describes common scenario planning elements, with examples of both simple and complex processes. The categories are adapted from Arnab Chakraborty, AICP, and Andrew McMillan's typologies for the elements of scenario planning.
A Likely Scenario
Incorporating Smart City Technology Into Plans
Scenario planning can be as simple as a single-agency workshop, or as complex as a multistate mobility plan. Here are several examples.
| Scenario Elements | Simple | More Complex |
|---|---|---|
| Process Outcomes |
Education & Awareness: Chamber of commerce visioning workshop Identifying Action: City council memo on priority action for 18-month technology training plan |
Consensus Building: Interagency agreement specifying common goals Regulatory & Plan Updates: Integrating AVs into Regional Transportation Plan |
| Topical Breadth |
Exploring a Single Issue Trend: Dockless e-bike sharing program Expedited Station Area Master Plan Update: Upgraded mobility hub for smart city technology testing |
Strategic Plan: Balancing digital, communications, and sensor infrastructure installations with other utilities for a "dig once" approach Problem Solving: Addressing trends pressuring congestion management |
| Organizational | Single Organization: Single agency transit transition plan |
Coalition of Organizations: State e-commerce and freight plan Joint City and County: Action plan for migration to blockchain |
| Spatial Extent |
Subdivision Plan: Autonomous vehicle master plan Small Area Plan: Mall retrofit with areawide green infrastructure and climate mitigation plan |
Multimodal Corridor Plan: Two-county corridor planning for segregated, autonomous bus lane Multistate Plan: Create single mobility-as-a-service platform |
| Purpose |
Informational: Library series on emerging trends or other external factors Joint Fact Finding: Technology and university coalition workshop |
Consensus Building: State and regional agreement on revising assumptions and modeling for new mobility Reorganization: Scoping state reorganization needed to adjust to probable revenue losses |
Pulling it all together
Every scenario planning session will be different, although all will require background research and structured brainstorming. These two scenarios describe possible approaches.
EXAMPLE 1: EXPLORING DESIGN OPTIONS
For a subway extension, a county creates stories around how various trending and future technologies might affect urban design options.
PROBABLE: The recently announced subway extension sparks immediate planning for transit-oriented development and smart city and transportation technology.
DESIRABLE: The next-generation transit-oriented development includes affordable housing, child care facilities, multiuse parks and mobility options for car-free families. For advanced design, the plan includes an energy district, smart lighting, and stormwater management and reuse. In addition to the TOD plan, local governments plan for an extensive first/last mile(s) program to expand the reach of transit access.
UNCERTAIN: Will shared-use mobility and AVs substitute transit trips? Will job automation alter demand for office space? How will e-commerce change demand for retail? Will overhead drones affect the pedestrian experience in the TOD?
EXAMPLE 2: STRUCTURED BRAINSTORMING FOR LONG-RANGE PLANS
As planning director, you've been tasked with examining how smart mobility might affect infrastructure and site design. The city manager expects a memo describing changes and how the city can future-proof plans and zoning codes.
Working with staff from multiple departments, you build a scenario-planning process based on the following questions or prompts:
WHAT DOES A SUCCESSFUL SMART MOBILITY SYSTEM LOOK LIKE IN THE FUTURE? Starting with success helps create a positive problem-solving frame. Participants decide a successful system is one where active transportation, transit, and technology form the future mobility system to expand access and options.
WHAT ARE FUTURE SMART MOBILITY MODES? The team decides to segment mobility into people and goods movement (and add sustainable goods movement to the definition of success). Participants chart out all the existing and trending modes, plus emerging and potential future modes. The team decides to create scenarios within 10 years, and beyond 10 years.
WHAT ARE THE IMPACTS OF EACH MODE, POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE? The team assesses and ranks potential impacts for site design, parking, and infrastructure. Infrastructure is separated into streets, curbs, sidewalks, and air space (for overhead drones). The team produces more than 200 sticky notes.
WHAT ARE THE EXISTING AND POTENTIAL LEVERS FOR SHAPING A DESIRED PORTFOLIO? The team groups impacts, creating new sticky notes for a range of regulatory, pricing, and funding incentives and disincentives. This includes new funding programs like curb pricing, as well as new partnerships with smart city technology companies. The team produces 15 potential actions for the near term, giving higher rank to practices that deliver multiple benefits.
The team also recommends additional sessions focused on "a day in the life of the transit center" and "a day in the life of a corridor" in 2030. For zoning codes, the team recommends working with architects, smart city technology experts, and real estate researchers who know how trends could affect building use and design. For these sessions, the team will also assess the level of data and modeling needed to recommended scenario planning tools.
These "scenarios for scenario planning" are only a starting point. Whether you hold a brown bag lunch session or kick off a long-range transportation plan update, scenario planning helps incorporate uncertainty in a fast-changing world.
Experts tend to present technology within utopian and dystopian futures. Whether a community gleans benefits or limits risk depends on proactive planning, community engagement, and policy choices. For planners, this will certainly be our job.
Lisa Nisenson has 20 years of experience in sustainable city design and helping cities adopt innovation. She is founder of GreaterPlaces, an award-winning urban tech startup, and a consultant for Alta Planning and other organizations.
Resources
Consortium for Scenario Planning: scenarioplanning.io
Federal Highways Administration, Scenario Planning Guidebook: http://bit.ly/2GyBfpz
Federal Highways Administration, Next Generation Scenario Planning: http://bit.ly/2tPHzGE
An Evaluation Framework for the Use of Scenarios in Urban Planning, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy: http://bit.ly/2HHkDeB.